Malware in the Future? Forecasting of Analyst Detection of Cyber Events

There have been extensive efforts in government, academia, and industry to anticipate, forecast, and mitigate cyber attacks. A common approach is time-series forecasting of cyber attacks based on data from network telescopes, honeypots, and automated intrusion detection/prevention systems. This research has uncovered key insights such as systematicity in cyber attacks. Here, we propose an alternate perspective of this problem by performing forecasting of attacks that are analyst-detected and -verified occurrences of malware. We call these instances of malware cyber event data. Specifically, our dataset was analyst-detected incidents from a large operational Computer Security Service Provider (CSSP) for the U.S. Department of Defense, which rarely relies only on automated systems. Our data set consists of weekly counts of cyber events over approximately seven years. Since all cyber events were validated by analysts, our dataset is unlikely to have false positives which are often endemic in other sources of data. Further, the higher-quality data could be used for a number for resource allocation, estimation of security resources, and the development of effective risk-management strategies. We used a Bayesian State Space Model for forecasting and found that events one week ahead could be predicted. To quantify bursts, we used a Markov model. Our findings of systematicity in analyst-detected cyber attacks are consistent with previous work using other sources. The advanced information provided by a forecast may help with threat awareness by providing a probable value and range for future cyber events one week ahead. Other potential applications for cyber event forecasting include proactive allocation of resources and capabilities for cyber defense (e.g., analyst staffing and sensor configuration) in CSSPs. Enhanced threat awareness may improve cybersecurity.Comment: Revised version resubmitted to journa

Adherence to the caffeine intake guideline during pregnancy and birth outcomes: A prospective cohort study

© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. The aims of this study were to identify: (i) the proportion of women exceeding the caffeine intake guideline ( > 200 mg/day) during each trimester, accounting for point of pregnancy awareness; (ii) guideline adherence trajectories across pregnancy; (iii) maternal characteristics associated with trajectories; and (iv) association between adherence and growth restriction birth outcomes. Typical and maximal intake per consumption day for the first trimester (T1; pre- and post-pregnancy awareness), second (T2), and third trimester (T3) were recorded for a prospective cohort of pregnant Australian women with singleton births (n = 1232). Birth outcomes were birth weight, small for gestational age, and head circumference. For each period, participants were classified as abstinent, within (≤200 mg), or in excess ( > 200 mg). Latent class growth analyses identified guideline adherence trajectories; regression analyses identified associations between adherence in each trimester and birth outcomes. The percentage of participants who reported caffeine use declined between T1 pre- and post-pregnancy awareness (89% to 68%), and increased in T2 and T3 (79% and 80%). Trajectories were: ‘low consumption’ (22%): low probability of any use; ‘within-guideline’ (70%): high probability of guideline adherence; and ‘decreasing heavy use’ (8%): decreasing probability of excess use. The latter two groups were more likely to report alcohol and tobacco use, and less likely to report planning pregnancy and fertility problems. Exceeding the guideline T1 pre-pregnancy awareness was associated with lower birth weight after covariate control (b = -143.16, p = 0.011). Overall, high caffeine intake pre-pregnancy awareness occurs amongst a significant minority of women, and continued excess use post-pregnancy awareness is more common where pregnancy is unplanned. Excess caffeine consumption pre-pregnancy awareness may increase the risk for lower birth weight. Increasing awareness of the guideline in pregn ancy and preconception health care may be warranted

Global Research Alliance N2O chamber methodology guidelines: Design considerations

Terrestrial ecosystems, both natural ecosystems and agroecosystems, generate greenhouse gases (GHGs). The chamber method is the most common method to quantify GHG fluxes from soil–plant systems and to better understand factors affecting their generation and mitigation. The objective of this study was to review and synthesize literature on chamber designs (non‐flow‐through, non‐steady‐state chamber) and associated factors that affect GHG nitrous oxide (N2O) flux measurement when using chamber methods. Chamber design requires consideration of many facets that include materials, insulation, sealing, venting, depth of placement, and the need to maintain plant growth and activity. Final designs should be tailored, and bench tested, in order to meet the nuances of the experimental objectives and the ecosystem under study while reducing potential artifacts. Good insulation, to prevent temperature fluctuations and pressure changes, and a high‐quality seal between base and chamber are essential. Elimination of pressure differentials between headspace and atmosphere through venting should be performed, and designs now exist to eliminate Venturi effects of earlier tube‐type vent designs. The use of fans within the chamber headspace increases measurement precision but may alter the flux. To establish best practice recommendations when using fans, further data are required, particularly in systems containing tall plants, to systematically evaluate the effects that fan speed, position, and mixing rate have on soil gas flux.Peer reviewe

Extraction of Molasses from Sugar Crystals in a Centrifuge

Massecuite is a mixture of sugar crystals and molasses produced during the manufacture of sugar. A centrifuge, which is a rotating cylindrical basket, is used to separate the sugar crystals from the molasses. Water and steam are introduced into the centrifuge during the latter part of the process to further facilitate drainage. Models developed indicate that a fifty percent increase in molasses drainage can result from the addition of steam, whereas water does not significantly affect drainage

Antibody-mediated disruption of the interaction between PCSK9 and the low-density lipoprotein receptor

PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9) promotes degradation of the LDLR [LDL (low-density lipoprotein) receptor] through an as-yet-undefined mechanism, leading to a reduction in cellular LDLc (LDL-cholesterol) and a concomitant increase in serum LDLc. Central to the function of PCSK9 is a direct protein–protein interaction formed with the LDLR. In the present study, we investigated a strategy to modulate LDL uptake by blocking this interaction using specific antibodies directed against PCSK9. Studies using surface plasmon resonance demonstrated that direct binding of PCSK9 to the LDLR could be abolished with three different anti-PCSK9 antibodies. Two of these antibodies were raised against peptide epitopes in a region of the catalytic domain of PCSK9 that is involved in the interaction with the LDLR. Such antibodies restored LDL uptake in HepG2 cells treated with exogenous PCSK9 and in HepG2 cells engineered to overexpress recombinant PCSK9. This latter observation indicates that antibodies blocking the PCSK9–LDLR interaction can inhibit the action of PCSK9 produced endogenously in a cell-based system. These antibodies also disrupted the higher-affinity interaction between the natural gain-of-function mutant of PCSK9, D374Y, and the LDLR in both the cell-free and cell-based assays. These data indicate that antibodies targeting PCSK9 can reverse the PCSK9-mediated modulation of cell-surface LDLRs

Development of a small molecule that corrects misfolding and increases secretion of Z α1 -antitrypsin.

Severe α1 -antitrypsin deficiency results from the Z allele (Glu342Lys) that causes the accumulation of homopolymers of mutant α1 -antitrypsin within the endoplasmic reticulum of hepatocytes in association with liver disease. We have used a DNA-encoded chemical library to undertake a high-throughput screen to identify small molecules that bind to, and stabilise Z α1 -antitrypsin. The lead compound blocks Z α1 -antitrypsin polymerisation in vitro, reduces intracellular polymerisation and increases the secretion of Z α1 -antitrypsin threefold in an iPSC model of disease. Crystallographic and biophysical analyses demonstrate that GSK716 and related molecules bind to a cryptic binding pocket, negate the local effects of the Z mutation and stabilise the bound state against progression along the polymerisation pathway. Oral dosing of transgenic mice at 100 mg/kg three times a day for 20 days increased the secretion of Z α1 -antitrypsin into the plasma by sevenfold. There was no observable clearance of hepatic inclusions with respect to controls over the same time period. This study provides proof of principle that "mutation ameliorating" small molecules can block the aberrant polymerisation that underlies Z α1 -antitrypsin deficiency

Novel mutations in human and mouse SCN4A implicate AMPK in myotonia and periodic paralysis

Mutations in the skeletal muscle channel (SCN4A), encoding the Nav1.4 voltage-gated sodium channel, are causative of a variety of muscle channelopathies, including non-dystrophic myotonias and periodic paralysis. The effects of many of these mutations on channel function have been characterized both in vitro and in vivo. However, little is known about the consequences of SCN4A mutations downstream from their impact on the electrophysiology of the Nav1.4 channel. Here we report the discovery of a novel SCN4A mutation (c.1762A>G; p.I588V) in a patient with myotonia and periodic paralysis, located within the S1 segment of the second domain of the Nav1.4 channel. Using N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis, we generated and characterized a mouse model (named draggen), carrying the equivalent point mutation (c.1744A>G; p.I582V) to that found in the patient with periodic paralysis and myotonia. Draggen mice have myotonia and suffer from intermittent hind-limb immobility attacks. In-depth characterization of draggen mice uncovered novel systemic metabolic abnormalities in Scn4a mouse models and provided novel insights into disease mechanisms. We discovered metabolic alterations leading to lean mice, as well as abnormal AMP-activated protein kinase activation, which were associated with the immobility attacks and may provide a novel potential therapeutic target

Emotion and ethics: an inter-(en)active approach

The original publication is available at www.springerlink.comIn this paper we start exploring the affective and ethical dimension of what De Jaegher and Di Paolo (2007) have called ‘participatory sense-making’. In the first part, we distinguish various ways in which we are, and feel, affectively inter-connected in interpersonal encounters. In the second part, we discuss the ethical character of this affective interconnectedness, as well as the implications that taking an ‘inter-(en)active approach’ has for ethical theory itself

Protocol for a randomised controlled trial of subacromial spacers for tears affecting rotator cuff tendons : a randomised, efficient, adaptive clinical trial in surgery (START:REACTS)

Introduction: Shoulder pain due to irreparable rotator cuff tears can cause substantial disability, but treatment options are limited. A balloon spacer is a relatively simple addition to a standard arthroscopic debridement procedure, but it is costly and there is no current randomised trial evidence to support its use. This trial will evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a subacromial balloon spacer for individuals undergoing arthroscopic debridement for irreparable rotator cuff tears. New surgical procedures can provide substantial benefit to patients. Good quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are needed, but trials in surgery are typically long and expensive, exposing patients to risk and the healthcare system to substantial costs. One way to improve the efficiency of trials is with an adaptive sample size. Such methods are well established in drug trials but have rarely, if ever, been used in surgical trials. Methods and analysis: Subacromial spacer for Tears Affecting Rotator cuff Tendons: a Randomised, Efficient, Adaptive Clinical Trial in Surgery (START:REACTS) is a participant and assessor blinded, adaptive, multicentre RCT comparing arthroscopic debridement with the InSpace balloon (Stryker, USA) to arthroscopic debridement alone for people with a symptomatic irreparable rotator cuff tear. It uses a group sequential adaptive design where interim analyses are performed using all of the 3, 6 and 12-month data that are available at each time point. A maximum of 221 participants will be randomised (1:1 ratio), this will provide 90% power (at the 5% level) for a 6 point difference in the primary outcome; the Oxford Shoulder Score at 12 months. A substudy will use deltoid-active MRI scans in 56 participants to assess the function of the balloon. Analysis will be on an intention-to-treat basis and reported according to principles established in the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement. Ethics and dissemination: NRES number 18/WM/0025. The results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications, presentations at conferences, lay summaries and social media. Trial registration number: ISRCTN1782559